Heat pump technology drives demand changes amid electrification push

Given the shaky start to the UK’s heat pump roll out and their rapidly improving efficiency, forecasts for heat pump demand vary among analysts. Good Energy’s Dixon said “we found that in an ideal system transition, by 2030, 46% of heat demand would be met through electrification – predominantly heat pumps. But the practicalities of a heat pump roll remain an obstacle, but their impact on peak winter demand could be moderated by use of more ground source heat pumps and some degree of flexibility, according to Rendesco managing director Alastair Murray.

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“Recent research we have conducted with the University of Southampton has shown that heat pump heated homes can see two to three hour windows with their heating switched off with little to no discernible impact on comfort or heat pump performance.”

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The increased demand and underlying grid capacity will also depend on what type of heat pump technology is chosen. Air source heat pumps require much more grid capacity per unit than ground source heat pumps, so the latter put less of a strain on the grid.

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Murray said air-source heat pumps are especially power hungry on the coldest day of the year when heat is needed the most. Ground source heat pumps can maintain high efficiency even on the coldest days of the year, drawing heat from depth. “Diversifying to ensure that a significant number of homes utilise ground source technology is therefore essential to minimising grid demand,” he said.